Report Highlights

The U.S. Role in Global Logistics Supply Chains

The United States is the largest logistics market in the world by spending, with business logistics costs reaching $2.58 trillion in 2024 according to the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals. Trucking carries roughly seven in ten tonnes of domestic freight, while Class I railroads such as Union Pacific and BNSF Railway move intermodal containers from Los Angeles and Long Beach to Chicago and onward. The country is a major exporter of logistics expertise, with C.H. Robinson and Expeditors International managing global freight for clients far beyond U.S. borders.

Import dependency defines the American position: the country ran a goods trade deficit of roughly $1.2 trillion in 2024, with China, Mexico, and Vietnam among the largest source markets. Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach together handled nearly 20 million TEUs, anchoring West Coast gateways. Mexico is the largest trading partner for truck freight, with Laredo, Texas, carrying the bulk of cross-border tonnage, while the Port of Savannah and the Port of New York and New Jersey serve as Atlantic import hubs.

Growth Drivers for U.S. Logistics Flows

Nearshoring is the most powerful driver of capacity expansion, with Mexican manufacturing hubs in Nuevo León and Coahuila channeling automotive and electronics components northward through Texas gateways. Industrial real estate absorption in the Inland Empire and Dallas-Fort Worth has accelerated as importers relocate inventory closer to end customers. Each new plant requires dedicated cross-dock, drayage, and rail-served warehousing, creating sustained demand for third-party logistics providers.

E-commerce fulfilment and reshoring investment form the second and third drivers. Amazon, Walmart, and Target have built regional sortation networks that shorten last-mile distances, while the CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act have funded semiconductor and battery plants in Arizona, Ohio, and Georgia. Autonomous trucking operations by Aurora Innovation on the Dallas to Houston corridor are the emerging technology lever, reducing driver-hour constraints on long-haul lanes.

Supply Chain Risks and Trade Barriers

Labor concentration represents the most acute operating risk. The 2024 ILA strike threatened East and Gulf Coast port throughput, while federal English-proficiency enforcement and non-domiciled CDL rules are tightening driver supply. Rail network dependence compounds the exposure: Union Pacific and BNSF operate most long-haul intermodal corridors, and a single service disruption at Chicago's rail interchange can ripple across the national network within days.

Trade-policy volatility introduces the second category of risk. Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods and emergency-authority tariffs announced in 2025 have shifted container volumes at the Port of Los Angeles, while Mexico's USMCA-compliant exports face review uncertainty ahead of the July 2026 joint review. Infrastructure gaps persist, as the Port of Savannah and Gulf Coast ports lack sufficient rail-served container capacity.

Trade and Investment Opportunities in the U.S.

Cold-chain and pharmaceutical logistics present the clearest near-term opportunity, as biologics manufacturing expands in North Carolina, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. Investors can target temperature-controlled cross-dock facilities near Raleigh-Durham and Indianapolis, where demand from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk outpaces existing supply. Inland port development at Columbus, Ohio, and Dallas-Fort Worth also offers rail-served industrial real estate with strong absorption.

Inbound FDI into port-adjacent infrastructure is the second opportunity. Foreign pension funds and infrastructure investors have acquired logistics real estate portfolios, and CFIUS-cleared capital can fund rail spur extensions and container terminal modernization at Savannah and Houston. Shippers can partner with electric drayage operators at the Port of Los Angeles, where the Clean Truck Program has pushed zero-emission trucking adoption.

Market at a Glance

Leading Market Participants

• UPS
• FedEx
• C.H. Robinson
• XPO Logistics
• GXO Logistics
• Union Pacific
• BNSF Railway
• J.B. Hunt Transport Services
• Ryder System
• Expeditors International

Regulatory and Trade Policy Environment

The trade framework is anchored by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which governs duty-free cross-border freight, with a formal joint review scheduled for July 2026 that will determine rules of origin for automotive and electronics content. Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports and the 2025 reciprocal tariff framework have altered customs-brokerage workloads and bonded warehousing demand at all major gateways.

Domestic transport rules are set by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, which enforces hours-of-service limits and English-language proficiency requirements for commercial drivers. The Jones Act restricts coastwise shipping to U.S.-built, U.S.-flagged vessels, limiting intermodal alternatives between domestic ports. The Surface Transportation Board regulates Class I railroad service and merger approvals, while the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act's $1.2 trillion package shapes port and freight investment.

U.S. Logistics Supply Chain Outlook to 2032

Freight demand will rise steadily as nearshoring, reshoring, and e-commerce compound, moving business logistics spending from $2.58 trillion in 2024 toward $3.70 trillion by 2032 at a 4.6% CAGR. Trade flows will tilt toward Mexico and Southeast Asia, with Laredo and Savannah gaining share from Los Angeles as transpacific imports diversify. Cross-border rail and truck volumes through Laredo will outpace coastal growth.

Technology will reshape comparative advantage. Autonomous long-haul trucking from Aurora Innovation and Kodiak Robotics will shift cost structures on Texas corridors, while port automation at Long Beach and Savannah will reduce labor intensity per TEU. Operators that combine AI-driven network planning with multimodal rail capacity will capture margin, while carriers reliant on spot trucking will face structural pressure.